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Declining resale values of SUVs and pickups drive down total loss insurance payments
By Insure.com
Last updated Aug. 23, 2008

If you're the owner of an SUV or pickup, you're already dealing with high gas costs, a lack of fuel efficiency and a dropping resale value, making it hard to unload your vehicle.

Add another problem to the list: If you're in a car accident and your vehicle is totaled, expect less money from your insurance company than what you would have received if you had crashed it a year ago.

Model 2007 2008 % Change
Ford Expedition 44.6% 32.4% -12.2
Chevrolet Tahoe 42.2% 31.8% -10.4
Chevrolet Suburban 39.2% 29.7% -9.5
GMC Yukon 42.7% 34.2% -8.5
Chevrolet Avalanche 45.5% 38.5% -7.0
Toyota Sequoia 44.6% 38.3% -6.3
Nissan Armada 44.9% 39.1% -5.8
Source: Automotive Lease Guide.
Resale values shown as a percent of MSRP. Value changes are for 36-month old vehicles.

Total loss payments from insurance companies rise and fall with resale values. If your vehicle is totaled in an accident and you have collision insurance, you are entitled to the "actual cash value" of your vehicle before the accident. Problem is, as "residual values" of large vehicles take a dive, so do total loss insurance payments. The same goes for theft. If your vehicle is stolen and you carry comprehensive insurance, your payout will likely be less than what you would have gotten a year ago.

The decline is most pronounced among the largest vehicles: The Ford Expedition, Chevrolet Tahoe and Chevrolet Suburban top the list of SUVs that are experiencing the biggest drops in resale value (see chart), according to Automotive Lease Guide, which provides forecasts of residual value to the automotive industry. For example, a Ford Expedition that was three years old in 2007 held a market value of 44.6 percent of its MSRP; right now an Expedition that's three years old fetches 32.4 percent of its MSRP.

The National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) has also been watching the sliding resale value of large vehicles. According to its data from AuctionNet, used-vehicle pricing trends for everything larger than a passenger car are declining:

Used-vehicle pricing trends
  Cars Crossover
utility
vehicles
Pickups SUVs Vans
2008 Q1 avg. price $12,705 $16,434 $14,835 $15,846 $11,727
2008 Q2 avg. price $13,145 $15,814 $13,170 $14,322 $11,380
Percent change 3.5% -3.8% -11.2% -9.6% -3.0%
Source: AuctionNet. Average prices are for vehicles one to five years old.

"We estimate that for every $1 increase in gas, large SUVs decline in value by $2,000, on average," says Terrence W. Wynne of NADA. Furthermore, he says, "We estimate that for every $1 increase in gas, large pickups decline in value by $2,200, on average."

If you total your car, no matter what the size, and wish to replace it with the same model and age vehicle, declines in total loss payments won't affect you. Consider this: Say you total your 2005 Ford Expedition and your insurance company pays you $15,000. Your insurance company should have based that payment on the going rate for 2005 Expeditions in your local market. You should have no problem going out and buying another.

But if you plan on taking on your total loss payment and putting it toward a brand-new vehicle, you would have been better off crashing last year: Your smaller total loss payment won't go as far at the new-car lot.

Although insurance companies are paying out less on SUV and pickup total losses, insurance premiums are not expected to decline. The value of your vehicle is a small part of many factors that go into setting your insurance rate, including your driving record, age, location and miles driven. Loretta Worters of the Insurance Information Institute says, "I think it's too early to tell whether a drop in value would have any impact on rates, though frankly, I don't see resale value having a significant impact. Other factors such as repair costs would have more impact on premiums. One area that theoretically speaking could result in higher rates: If a car has a greater resale value, it may prove to be more desirable to thieves, thus the cost of comprehensive coverage on your auto could increase."

In addition, Dick Luedke, spokesperson for State Farm, the nation's largest auto insurer, points out that as cars get older, replacement parts can become harder to find, which pushes up repair costs on some older vehicles and affects insurance rates.

Model 2007 2008 % Change
Honda Fit 46.0% 56.0% 10.0
Chevrolet Aveo 33.5% 42.8% 9.3
Hyundai Accent 33.3% 41.8% 8.5
Kia Rio 32.3% 39.2% 7.0
Toyota Yaris 43.7% 50.3% 6.6
Suzuki SX4 39.5% 45.3% 5.8
Nissan Versa 43.3% 48.4% 5.1
Source: Automotive Lease Guide.
Resale values shown as a percent of MSRP. Value changes are for 36-month old vehicles.

There is a bright side — for owners of small cars: You're seeing resale value (as a percent of MSRP) go up rather than down, as used-car dealers find small cars are easy sells.

According to Wynne, "By contrast, for intermediate compact cars, a $1 increase in fuel costs lifts resale value by an estimated $980."

How insurance companies determine
"actual cash value"

If you total your vehicle or it's stolen, you're entitled to the actual cash value of your vehicle for your local market. Luedke of State Farm says his company uses a variety of sources to pinpoint that value, including:
Tip

If your car is totaled, you may be entitled to claim reimbursement for sales tax on your replacement vehicle. For more, see Recouping expenses after your car is totaled.

  • Car guide books
  • Market searches
  • Total loss valuation databases from vendors
  • Expert opinion

"We make independent evaluations on each case," says Luedke, adding that mileage, vehicle condition and prior damage play a role in values.

Don't look for resale values or total loss payments on large vehicles to bounce back soon. Wynne says NADA will be making "fairly aggressive" devaluations of SUVs and pickups through the end of 2008 and they see depreciation as a long-term trend.

 

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