Year |
Average expenditure |
Percent change |
1996 |
$691 |
3.4% |
1997 |
$705 |
2.0% |
1998 |
$703 |
-0.3% |
1999 |
$685 |
-2.6% |
2000 |
$690 |
0.7% |
2001 |
$724 |
4.9% |
2002 |
$780 |
7.7% |
2003 |
$823 |
5.5% |
2004 |
$838 |
1.8% |
| 2005 |
$829 |
-1.1% |
Source: © 2006 National Association of Insurance Commissioners. |
The dip in auto insurance
expenditure in 1999 and 2000 that looked at the time like a promising
trend for car owners turned out to be nothing more than a market
fluctuation. When average expenditures decreased in 1998 and 1999
for the first time since 1973, some experts forecasted even more
savings for some drivers in the following years, an issue which Insure.com explored in a previous article.
Unfortunately,
the decreasing trend was superlatively short-lived. In 2000,
expenditures increased; in 2001, they increased at seven times the 2000
rate; and in 2002 they increased again, this time at eleven times the
2000 rate. The drastic increase, however, was similarly brief, as
rates soon returned to normal levels, indicating that perhaps the surge
served only to balance the aberrant decrease of ’98 and ’99.
Year |
CPI inflation |
Rate of expenditure increase |
1997 |
2.294 |
3.443 |
1998 |
3.888 |
2.026 |
1999 |
2.209 |
-0.284 |
2000 |
3.241 |
-2.560 |
2001 |
2.828 |
0.730 |
2002 |
1.587 |
4.928 |
2003 |
2.268 |
7.735 |
2004 |
2.674 |
5.513 |
2005 |
3.388 |
1.823 |
2006 |
3.230 |
-1.074 |
5yr avg. |
2.629 |
3.785 |
10yr avg. |
2.761 |
2.228 |
© 2007 Insure.com |
Overall,
average expenditure has increased at a reasonable, if unsteady,
rate. In fact, over the past five years, and even more over the
past ten, the rates are comparable to the inflation of the Consumer
Price Index—a good indication of a steady market.
The average auto insurance
expenditure did not suffer inordinate jumps due to always-rising SUV
sales as some analysts feared. Rather, SUV sales declined as gas
prices climbed and a smorgasbord of smaller and more fuel-efficient
vehicles emerged on the market.
The growth rate of average
expenditure slowing down again, decreasing in 2006 for the first time
since 2000. So even though the hopes of 1998 and 1999 were
unrealized, we are in a similar position today. Expenditure
growth is slowing, and we are perched at another brink of a turndown in
the cycling market.
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